3 Reasons I think Romney will win
1. The Debates
Because the caricature the Democrats had painted of Romney was so heinous and distorted there has never been a debate where one candidate won so overwhelmingly. Surely this was due to Romney and Obama’s performance or lack of, yet the debates have for sure debunked the straw man Obama had built. One debate a week for the past three weeks has proven to be a huge benefit to Romney.
2. Obama keeps talking about abortion
Perhaps he is so radical he can’t help but talk about abortion, one thing is for sure, this is evidence he is not convinced that he has his base securely “in the fold”. Political wisdom says he should be appealing to bigger and broader issues at this stage of the campaign. While this may be intended to motivate his base, Obama continuously talking about contraceptives, planned parenthood and abortion is definitely motivating Romney’s base.
3. Obama’s waning momentum
There have been 4 presidents in the last 50 years who have won re-election. Each of these, Nixon, Reagan, Clinton, Bush won by greater measure in both the percentage of vote and the electoral college the second time. This year every swing state is a state Obama won in 2008. Furthermore, everyone concedes that he is likely to lose several states that he won in 2008 (NC, IN, FL, and others) meanwhile it does not appear Romney will lose any McCain states. All of this is a major problem of waning momentum for Obama, something that has haunted every one-term president.
My three thoughts, What do you think?